Quantitative Biology BIO3019S

Jasper Slingsby

What is quanitative biology?

What is quanitative biology?

  • models (maths and stats)
  • data
  • computation

BIO3019S: Quantitative Biology


This course is an introduction to quantitative methods used in various areas of biology from ecophysiology to evolution, population biology, biogeography and ecosystem science.


Students will gain experience in question formulation, model development and parameterisation, interpretation of results, model critique and best practice when working with data, models and code.

Models

Models are simplified reconstructions of reality

How realistic do models need to be?

It depends on your question/objective…

Models

  • tools for deductive reasoning
    • test our understanding
    • test our assumptions
  • models should fail in informative ways
    • revealing failings of our understanding or assumptions
  • models let us ask ‘what if’ questions
    • explore scenarios
    • forecast future states and changes

Empirical vs mechanistic model continuum


Many models are intermediate on the continuum, incorporating mechanistic understanding, but still relying on statistical approaches and data.

Empirical vs mechanistic models?

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


Empirical approach:

  • Collect data
  • Fit a statistical model

Empirical approach

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


Some data collected earlier…

Empirical approach

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


Data showing a linear model of \(d_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \times v_i + \epsilon_i, \epsilon_i \sim N(0, \sigma)\), where \(d\) is the distance and \(v\) is the velocity.

Empirical approach

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


Data showing a linear model of \(d_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \times v_i + \epsilon_i, \epsilon_i \sim N(0, \sigma)\), where \(d\) is the distance and \(v\) is the velocity.

Empirical approach

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


Data showing a quadratic model of \(d_i = \frac{v_i^2}{2a} + \epsilon_i, \epsilon_i \sim N(0, \sigma)\), where \(d\) is the distance, \(v\) is the velocity and \(a\) is the friction coefficient multiplied by acceleration.

Mechanistic approach

How does the speed of a car (or animal) affect the distance needed to stop?


From physics first principles we know the stopping distance formula: \(d = \frac{v^2}{2a}\), where \(d\) is distance, \(v\) is velocity and \(a\) is the friction coefficient multiplied by acceleration.

Empirical vs mechanistic models?

  • Both are useful. Mechanistic is often the ultimate goal.
  • We often need to start with empirical models to work towards understanding the mechanism (e.g. the quadratic model was a better fit than the linear above)
  • Many models in biology are a mix, incorporating mechanisms known from first principles into otherwise empirical frameworks
  • Incorporating mechanisms into models is often key for identifying feedbacks and other complexity in biological systems

Examples of models in biology

Species distribution models (SDMs)